Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Who Wins in Iraq?
Samuel Huntington
By David Frum
Posted: Monday, March 19, 2007
ARTICLES
Foreign Policy (March/April 2007)
Publication Date: March 1, 2007
President George W. Bush's speeches on the Iraq war described a skilled and educated population eager to live in freedom as soon as they could be emancipated from the dictator who tyrannized them. He compared Iraq to Germany and Japan--nations that built decent societies after their dictatorships were overthrown by force. He stressed again and again the universality of democratic ideals and challenged those who doubted whether these ideals could win support in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
Instead, Americans have seen Iraqis divide into warring tribes. They have seen Sunnis rally to al Qaeda's murderous gangs and Shiites rally to brutal militias. They have seen Iraq's communities wage savage war.
Events in Iraq appear to have confirmed the worst fears of the great political scientist Samuel Huntington.
What went wrong? The answer you hear from more and more Americans: The Iraqis went wrong. Democracy promotion now ranks last among Americans' surveyed foreign-policy priorities. Between early 2002 and early 2006, the proportion of Americans who described Islam as promoting violence rose from 14 percent to 33 percent. Fifty-eight percent of Americans answered "yes" to the (slightly different) question of whether Islam had more violent followers than other religions. In other words, thanks to the bloody clashes that have exploded in Iraq, more Americans today view Islam as a violent faith than immediately after terrorists killed 3,000 Americans in Islam's name.
Events appear to have confirmed the worst fears of the great political scientist Samuel Huntington. In his landmark 1993 article, "The Clash of Civilizations," the Harvard professor wrote, "[The] centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline. It could become more virulent." A decade before President Bush argued that democracy promotes peace, Huntington had observed, "In the Arab world . . . Western democracy strengthens anti-Western political forces."
As they turn against the Iraq war, Americans seem also to have rejected the sunny assumptions about the Middle East upon which it was founded. Bush argued that terrorism was the work of a tiny handful of extremists, repudiated by the vast majority of Middle Easterners. His fellow Americans no longer believe him. More and more are coming to believe that Islam really is inherently hostile to democracy and the West. Civilizations are clashing. Paul Wolfowitz has lost. Sam Huntington has won.
David Frum is a resident fellow at AEI.
Samuel Huntington
By David Frum
Posted: Monday, March 19, 2007
ARTICLES
Foreign Policy (March/April 2007)
Publication Date: March 1, 2007
President George W. Bush's speeches on the Iraq war described a skilled and educated population eager to live in freedom as soon as they could be emancipated from the dictator who tyrannized them. He compared Iraq to Germany and Japan--nations that built decent societies after their dictatorships were overthrown by force. He stressed again and again the universality of democratic ideals and challenged those who doubted whether these ideals could win support in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
Instead, Americans have seen Iraqis divide into warring tribes. They have seen Sunnis rally to al Qaeda's murderous gangs and Shiites rally to brutal militias. They have seen Iraq's communities wage savage war.
Events in Iraq appear to have confirmed the worst fears of the great political scientist Samuel Huntington.
What went wrong? The answer you hear from more and more Americans: The Iraqis went wrong. Democracy promotion now ranks last among Americans' surveyed foreign-policy priorities. Between early 2002 and early 2006, the proportion of Americans who described Islam as promoting violence rose from 14 percent to 33 percent. Fifty-eight percent of Americans answered "yes" to the (slightly different) question of whether Islam had more violent followers than other religions. In other words, thanks to the bloody clashes that have exploded in Iraq, more Americans today view Islam as a violent faith than immediately after terrorists killed 3,000 Americans in Islam's name.
Events appear to have confirmed the worst fears of the great political scientist Samuel Huntington. In his landmark 1993 article, "The Clash of Civilizations," the Harvard professor wrote, "[The] centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline. It could become more virulent." A decade before President Bush argued that democracy promotes peace, Huntington had observed, "In the Arab world . . . Western democracy strengthens anti-Western political forces."
As they turn against the Iraq war, Americans seem also to have rejected the sunny assumptions about the Middle East upon which it was founded. Bush argued that terrorism was the work of a tiny handful of extremists, repudiated by the vast majority of Middle Easterners. His fellow Americans no longer believe him. More and more are coming to believe that Islam really is inherently hostile to democracy and the West. Civilizations are clashing. Paul Wolfowitz has lost. Sam Huntington has won.
David Frum is a resident fellow at AEI.
