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Op-Ed Columnist: Electing the Electable

January 31, 2004
By DAVID BROOKS


Let us review the Democratic presidential primaries so far:


In the beginning, John Kerry surged to a big lead in the
New Hampshire polls because he seemed so electable. He had
plenty of experience, lots of money and big hair, and, as
somebody said, he looks like an animatronic version of
Abraham Lincoln. But then Howard Dean raised a lot of
money, and New Hampshire voters figured that he was
bringing so many new people into the process that he must
be electable - and if he was electable, then they should
probably support him because they wanted somebody who could
beat George Bush.

So Dean's poll numbers rose, and the news media noticed his
momentum, and other voters noticed how much great press he
was getting. And that led to a self-reinforcing upward
spiral of electability as more people concluded that he was
electable because so many other people were concluding he
was electable. People around the country saw that Dean was
doing so well in New Hampshire they, too, concluded that he
must be electable, a perception that led to an impressive
rise in the national polls, which only enhanced his
electability.

All this time, Kerry had not changed his views
particularly, and he had not changed his campaign style,
though he might have changed the bags under his eyes,
depending on whom you ask. But savvy Democratic voters
wanted to vote for somebody who could win the most votes in
November, and they decided that since Dean was ahead of
Kerry, therefore Kerry must be less electable, so voters
moved away from Kerry. So Kerry's support plummeted, and
the more his support plummeted the more he looked
pathetically unelectable.

So Kerry fired his campaign manager and moved to Iowa,
where fewer people had formed a conclusion about his
electability. And lo and behold, Dean started saying some
weird things.

These weird things didn't really bother Democratic primary
voters, but primary voters imagined they might bother
general election swing voters. And since electability is
all about Iowa and New Hampshire liberals trying to imagine
what Palm Beach County, Fla., independents will want in a
presidential candidate nine months from now, this created
ripples of concern that Dean might not be so electable
after all. The media picked up on the doubts, which created
a downward unelectability spiral.

Meanwhile, a bunch of Democratic insiders drafted Wesley
Clark, who may have been a Republican and who didn't seem
to have a single domestic policy idea in his head. But he
did seem electable because he had worn a military uniform
and thus could negate the Republicans' biggest electability
advantage, national security.

Clark seemed so immediately electable to so many Democrats
that the day after he announced his candidacy, he shot up
toward the top of the national polls. These voters are
nothing if not principled, and their primary principle is
that they should win. This, after all, is a party of ideas.


But Clark decided not to campaign in Iowa because everyone
knew that organization is everything in Iowa, and a defeat
there might mar his aura of electability.

Suddenly Kerry, who had not changed his views particularly,
nor his campaign style, began to see his poll numbers rise
in Iowa because Dean seemed a little less electable. Then
other Iowa voters began to notice the momentum behind
Kerry, which made him look still more electable, so more
voters decided that maybe Kerry was the man to support
after all.

And, what do you know, Kerry won the Iowa caucuses, and
from that moment on the election turned into a
postmodernist literary critic's idea of heaven. It became
an election about itself, with voters voting on the basis
of who could win votes later on.

It's the tautology, stupid.

So New Hampshire voters who
had dismissed Kerry as a pathetic, unelectable loser days
before took a new look at him after Iowa and figured that
if he could win an election, he must be electable (which is
sort of definitional), and concluded he is a triumphantly
electable winner. Now Kerry is riding this great wave of
electability, and he has a huge seething army of fanatical
Kerry supporters who will follow him to the death, unless,
of course, he stumbles - in which case they will abandon
him faster than you can say "electability."

In which case, John, don't let the door hit you on the way
out.

E-mail: dabrooks@nytimes.com