Friday, October 24, 2003
Iran's European Bargain
GIVEN AN OCT. 31 deadline for meeting a series of demands from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran faced a choice between concessions on its nuclear programs or a likely referral to the U.N. Security Council, where most governments might have felt compelled to support U.S. demands for sanctions. From Tehran's point of view, the agreement it announced Tuesday with Britain, France and Germany offered a clever way out of this bind. In exchange for promises to meet IAEA concerns, Iran virtually assured that its thinly disguised drive to develop nuclear weapons will not be considered by the Security Council soon and that the United States will not be able to enlist European governments for any other action. In exchange, the Europeans could claim credit for Iran's agreement to fully disclose the nuclear programs it was recently caught hiding, accept tougher inspections and temporarily refrain from producing enriched uranium. If those pledges are kept, the odds that Iran can be stopped from producing nuclear weapons in the next several years might improve. Yet there is a considerable risk that the agreement will merely allow an aspiring nuclear power to escape from what looked like a tight corner.
The first concern raised by the agreement involves timing. Iran submitted its promised disclosure statement to the IAEA yesterday, but officials said it did not cover the most important question, which is the origin of traces of bomb-grade uranium discovered by a recent inspection. There is no timetable for resolving such unanswered questions or implementing more aggressive inspections. Nor is it clear how long Iran will refrain from uranium enrichment or how the moratorium will be verified -- one top official said at the announcement in Tehran that it could be "for one day or one year." Timing is vital because Iran's strategy, since its secret nuclear programs were uncovered earlier this year, has been to stall, even as those programs go forward. Some senior Iranian officials have suggested publicly that full cooperation with the IAEA could be delayed for several years -- a period that most experts believe would be more than enough for Iran to complete its capacity to build bombs.
A deeper problem with the European accord could prove to be the holes it leaves for continued Iranian development. Once it answers the IAEA's questions, Tehran will be free under the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to resume its construction of large facilities for the enrichment of uranium and even to begin enrichment. The accord also imposes no restraint on the continuing construction of a large nuclear power plant, which when completed will provide a potential source of plutonium. The United States has sought for years to stop construction of the plant, which oil-rich Iran hardly needs for electricity; only that freeze, and an Iranian commitment to dismantle its facilities for uranium enrichment, would seriously impede nuclear weapons development. Since the IAEA cannot impose such restrictions, they ought to be the focus of any accord between Iran and Western governments. Yet the European ministers limited themselves to backing up the international inspectors -- who may or may not have needed their help, given the deadline and threat of a referral to the Security Council.
It's hard to judge to what degree the European initiative was motivated by a desire to preempt the Bush administration and undermine its tougher approach to Iran, though the gloating comments from the French and Germans suggest that was an important factor. What ought to be clear is that there is little chance of really preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons -- as opposed to getting it to make promises to the IAEA -- unless Europe, the United States and Russia effectively combine in seeking verifiable action going well beyond what so far has been promised. The three European governments said this week's accord "will open the way to a dialogue on a basis for longer-term cooperation." Let's hope that dialogue will be aimed solely at containing the nuclear threat from Iran, and not at countering the United States.
GIVEN AN OCT. 31 deadline for meeting a series of demands from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran faced a choice between concessions on its nuclear programs or a likely referral to the U.N. Security Council, where most governments might have felt compelled to support U.S. demands for sanctions. From Tehran's point of view, the agreement it announced Tuesday with Britain, France and Germany offered a clever way out of this bind. In exchange for promises to meet IAEA concerns, Iran virtually assured that its thinly disguised drive to develop nuclear weapons will not be considered by the Security Council soon and that the United States will not be able to enlist European governments for any other action. In exchange, the Europeans could claim credit for Iran's agreement to fully disclose the nuclear programs it was recently caught hiding, accept tougher inspections and temporarily refrain from producing enriched uranium. If those pledges are kept, the odds that Iran can be stopped from producing nuclear weapons in the next several years might improve. Yet there is a considerable risk that the agreement will merely allow an aspiring nuclear power to escape from what looked like a tight corner.
The first concern raised by the agreement involves timing. Iran submitted its promised disclosure statement to the IAEA yesterday, but officials said it did not cover the most important question, which is the origin of traces of bomb-grade uranium discovered by a recent inspection. There is no timetable for resolving such unanswered questions or implementing more aggressive inspections. Nor is it clear how long Iran will refrain from uranium enrichment or how the moratorium will be verified -- one top official said at the announcement in Tehran that it could be "for one day or one year." Timing is vital because Iran's strategy, since its secret nuclear programs were uncovered earlier this year, has been to stall, even as those programs go forward. Some senior Iranian officials have suggested publicly that full cooperation with the IAEA could be delayed for several years -- a period that most experts believe would be more than enough for Iran to complete its capacity to build bombs.
A deeper problem with the European accord could prove to be the holes it leaves for continued Iranian development. Once it answers the IAEA's questions, Tehran will be free under the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to resume its construction of large facilities for the enrichment of uranium and even to begin enrichment. The accord also imposes no restraint on the continuing construction of a large nuclear power plant, which when completed will provide a potential source of plutonium. The United States has sought for years to stop construction of the plant, which oil-rich Iran hardly needs for electricity; only that freeze, and an Iranian commitment to dismantle its facilities for uranium enrichment, would seriously impede nuclear weapons development. Since the IAEA cannot impose such restrictions, they ought to be the focus of any accord between Iran and Western governments. Yet the European ministers limited themselves to backing up the international inspectors -- who may or may not have needed their help, given the deadline and threat of a referral to the Security Council.
It's hard to judge to what degree the European initiative was motivated by a desire to preempt the Bush administration and undermine its tougher approach to Iran, though the gloating comments from the French and Germans suggest that was an important factor. What ought to be clear is that there is little chance of really preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons -- as opposed to getting it to make promises to the IAEA -- unless Europe, the United States and Russia effectively combine in seeking verifiable action going well beyond what so far has been promised. The three European governments said this week's accord "will open the way to a dialogue on a basis for longer-term cooperation." Let's hope that dialogue will be aimed solely at containing the nuclear threat from Iran, and not at countering the United States.
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