Friday, October 10, 2003
The demographics of a new political phenomenon
Baseless
by Joel Kotkin
Only at TNR Online | Post date 10.08.03
In yesterday's recall election, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante sailed to victory in heavily Democratic fortresses such as San Francisco, where he captured over 60 percent of the vote and overwhelmed Arnold Schwarzenegger by a margin of better than three-to-one. Meanwhile, right-wing diehards had their own love affair--with State Senator Tom McClintock. Despite garnering a mere 13 percent of the overall vote, McClintock nearly beat Bustamante in conservative Orange County.
Which raises the question: With each party's base so loyal to its preferred candidate, how on earth did Arnold manage nearly 50 percent of the vote? The answer hints at the emergence of a new and potentially critical force in California politics.
In the broadest terms, Arnold's victory came courtesy of a large and growing constituency of younger and middle-aged, middle-class voters, mostly living in the suburbs. They were attracted not only to the star power of the onetime Terminator, but also to his combination of fiscal probity and moderate social positions. In the run up to the election, several hundred thousand of these voters registered for the first time, many of them as Independents. To a large extent, they don't exist in the political "base" of either party, meaning they can't be rallied effectively either by labor union organizations or conservative political action committees. But, according to exit polls, nearly half of them supported Schwarzenegger; three in five voted in favor of the recall.
Perhaps the best way to see the new patterns--and the emerging new constituency--is by looking at the geography of the election. The election's geographic key was those parts of the state where young families, seeking job opportunities and affordable housing, have been flocking. Ground zero for this trend lies in what's known as the Inland Empire, which covers the counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, abutting Los Angeles County but tucked away from the bulk of national reporters, who tend to congregate in west Los Angeles and San Francisco. Yet with roughly three million people, it has more than twice the voting power of San Francisco and its environs. So how did the residents of the Inland Empire vote yesterday? Roughly 60 percent of them favored Schwarzenegger, and a remarkable 70 percent voted for the recall.
"The people who opted for Arnold are those who are post-student but pre-big money making," explains economist David Friedman, who has studied California economic trends over the past decade. "The gap between them and the [traditional Democratic] alliance of the government dependent and the latte liberals is what's shaping politics now in California." These voters, Friedman suggests, had no shortage of economic reasons to detest Gray Davis and the legislative Democrats. Regulatory burdens imposed on builders have forced up the price of housing, typically their key concern. They were especially hard hit by the state's recently-increased car tax, since many own multiple cars. Burdens on business, imposed at the behest of labor unions, trial lawyers or environmentalists, were seen as threats to their jobs or the enterprises they own.
Many of the new constituency voters, although not strict social conservatives, also objected to the Democrats' social agenda, which had shifted from mere "tolerance" to an aggressive program of social engineering in favor of gay rights and illegal aliens. For example, state Democrats recently passed legislation to protect the rights of "crossdressers" and to force prospective foster parents to prove they weren't homophobic. Particularly damaging was the Democrats' support for illegal alien drivers licenses, which polls showed roughly two-thirds of voters opposing. In previous elections, running against zealots like 2002 GOP candidate Bill Simon, Democrats could hide their extremism behind support for such things as choice and gun control. But against Arnold, who embraced these mainstream positions, the Democrats had no effective weapon on social issues, and their defiantly counter-cultural stances became all too evident to voters.
But perhaps the most intriguing part of this new constituency is its racial component. One cardinal principle of Democratic Party politics in California, and in the nation as a whole, has been that Latinos, like African-Americans, will remain loyal Democrats regardless of what the party does. Yet even with a prominent Latino on the ballot, Schwarzenegger was able to win upwards of 35 percent of the Latino vote, better than any Republican candidate in a decade. The population of the Inland Empire is nearly 40 percent Latino, many of whom are middle-class, second generation California residents. Beyond that, the fact that heavily Latino Los Angeles County voted for Schwarzenegger and split 50-50 on the recall suggests that the "core" may not be as solid as many Democrats suppose.
For Democrats, the most ominous development in all of this may be the fact that the Inland Empire represents the demographic future of California. At a time when domestic migrants have been leaving Los Angeles and San Francisco in droves, notes Bill Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, they have been flocking to the Inland Empire: The region is experiencing population growth of 2 to 3 percent per year, compared with San Francisco's loss of about 4 percent of its population between 2000 and 2002. The Inland Empire region has also lost far fewer 25-to-34 year-old voters in the last decade than either California or the nation in general, and has gained an impressive number of people in the 35-to-44 year old category.
All of this has helped make the Inland Empire the fastest growing part of the state both economically and demographically; its share of the state's electorate is rising rapidly as well. Together with the state's other growth areas, notably the Central Valley, Orange and San Diego counties, it now accounts for over 40 percent of the California electorate, almost matching the combined heft of the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.
And, of course, the demographic trends on display in the Inland Empire aren't that different from the trends remaking much of the Sunbelt. Beyond California, the emergence of a contestable, multi-racial "new constituency" marks a challenge to both parties. On the left, an emphasis on the "Democratic wing of the Democratic party"--fervently loyal to union, gay, feminist, and environmentalist orthodoxy--could alienate the middle-aged, middle constituency that threw Davis out of office and put Schwarzenegger there in his place.
Republicans, too, have something to learn. If they wish to expand outside of their right wing and southern base and become competitive among the new constituency in key states like California, they must adopt a less strident position on social issues and a more humane face in general. Arnold's political positioning helped turn many of these voters into "Schwarzenegger Republicans." But whether they remain Republicans for George Bush and other party candidates will depend on how much the GOP learns from the Terminator's California triumph.
Baseless
by Joel Kotkin
Only at TNR Online | Post date 10.08.03
In yesterday's recall election, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante sailed to victory in heavily Democratic fortresses such as San Francisco, where he captured over 60 percent of the vote and overwhelmed Arnold Schwarzenegger by a margin of better than three-to-one. Meanwhile, right-wing diehards had their own love affair--with State Senator Tom McClintock. Despite garnering a mere 13 percent of the overall vote, McClintock nearly beat Bustamante in conservative Orange County.
Which raises the question: With each party's base so loyal to its preferred candidate, how on earth did Arnold manage nearly 50 percent of the vote? The answer hints at the emergence of a new and potentially critical force in California politics.
In the broadest terms, Arnold's victory came courtesy of a large and growing constituency of younger and middle-aged, middle-class voters, mostly living in the suburbs. They were attracted not only to the star power of the onetime Terminator, but also to his combination of fiscal probity and moderate social positions. In the run up to the election, several hundred thousand of these voters registered for the first time, many of them as Independents. To a large extent, they don't exist in the political "base" of either party, meaning they can't be rallied effectively either by labor union organizations or conservative political action committees. But, according to exit polls, nearly half of them supported Schwarzenegger; three in five voted in favor of the recall.
Perhaps the best way to see the new patterns--and the emerging new constituency--is by looking at the geography of the election. The election's geographic key was those parts of the state where young families, seeking job opportunities and affordable housing, have been flocking. Ground zero for this trend lies in what's known as the Inland Empire, which covers the counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, abutting Los Angeles County but tucked away from the bulk of national reporters, who tend to congregate in west Los Angeles and San Francisco. Yet with roughly three million people, it has more than twice the voting power of San Francisco and its environs. So how did the residents of the Inland Empire vote yesterday? Roughly 60 percent of them favored Schwarzenegger, and a remarkable 70 percent voted for the recall.
"The people who opted for Arnold are those who are post-student but pre-big money making," explains economist David Friedman, who has studied California economic trends over the past decade. "The gap between them and the [traditional Democratic] alliance of the government dependent and the latte liberals is what's shaping politics now in California." These voters, Friedman suggests, had no shortage of economic reasons to detest Gray Davis and the legislative Democrats. Regulatory burdens imposed on builders have forced up the price of housing, typically their key concern. They were especially hard hit by the state's recently-increased car tax, since many own multiple cars. Burdens on business, imposed at the behest of labor unions, trial lawyers or environmentalists, were seen as threats to their jobs or the enterprises they own.
Many of the new constituency voters, although not strict social conservatives, also objected to the Democrats' social agenda, which had shifted from mere "tolerance" to an aggressive program of social engineering in favor of gay rights and illegal aliens. For example, state Democrats recently passed legislation to protect the rights of "crossdressers" and to force prospective foster parents to prove they weren't homophobic. Particularly damaging was the Democrats' support for illegal alien drivers licenses, which polls showed roughly two-thirds of voters opposing. In previous elections, running against zealots like 2002 GOP candidate Bill Simon, Democrats could hide their extremism behind support for such things as choice and gun control. But against Arnold, who embraced these mainstream positions, the Democrats had no effective weapon on social issues, and their defiantly counter-cultural stances became all too evident to voters.
But perhaps the most intriguing part of this new constituency is its racial component. One cardinal principle of Democratic Party politics in California, and in the nation as a whole, has been that Latinos, like African-Americans, will remain loyal Democrats regardless of what the party does. Yet even with a prominent Latino on the ballot, Schwarzenegger was able to win upwards of 35 percent of the Latino vote, better than any Republican candidate in a decade. The population of the Inland Empire is nearly 40 percent Latino, many of whom are middle-class, second generation California residents. Beyond that, the fact that heavily Latino Los Angeles County voted for Schwarzenegger and split 50-50 on the recall suggests that the "core" may not be as solid as many Democrats suppose.
For Democrats, the most ominous development in all of this may be the fact that the Inland Empire represents the demographic future of California. At a time when domestic migrants have been leaving Los Angeles and San Francisco in droves, notes Bill Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, they have been flocking to the Inland Empire: The region is experiencing population growth of 2 to 3 percent per year, compared with San Francisco's loss of about 4 percent of its population between 2000 and 2002. The Inland Empire region has also lost far fewer 25-to-34 year-old voters in the last decade than either California or the nation in general, and has gained an impressive number of people in the 35-to-44 year old category.
All of this has helped make the Inland Empire the fastest growing part of the state both economically and demographically; its share of the state's electorate is rising rapidly as well. Together with the state's other growth areas, notably the Central Valley, Orange and San Diego counties, it now accounts for over 40 percent of the California electorate, almost matching the combined heft of the Bay Area and Los Angeles County.
And, of course, the demographic trends on display in the Inland Empire aren't that different from the trends remaking much of the Sunbelt. Beyond California, the emergence of a contestable, multi-racial "new constituency" marks a challenge to both parties. On the left, an emphasis on the "Democratic wing of the Democratic party"--fervently loyal to union, gay, feminist, and environmentalist orthodoxy--could alienate the middle-aged, middle constituency that threw Davis out of office and put Schwarzenegger there in his place.
Republicans, too, have something to learn. If they wish to expand outside of their right wing and southern base and become competitive among the new constituency in key states like California, they must adopt a less strident position on social issues and a more humane face in general. Arnold's political positioning helped turn many of these voters into "Schwarzenegger Republicans." But whether they remain Republicans for George Bush and other party candidates will depend on how much the GOP learns from the Terminator's California triumph.
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